Publications

Natural gas prices have fallen significantly in Asia and Europe on the back of the sliding oil price. As more LNG comes on the market regional prices are set to remain low.

Robust growth rates persist, but lower exports hurt the manufacturing sector.

Crucial reforms have been passed, but their proper implementation remains to be seen.

Growth is expected to slow down, while business insolvencies to increase in 2015 and 2016.

Atradius survey shows an uptick in late payment of B2B invoices in China, which can have a knock-on effect on the liquidity of some businesses in several countries in Asia Pacific.

Nearly half of the respondents in Australia said that the risk of payment delay and default from B2B buyers has increased over the past six months. One in five respondents rated it as “significant”.

62.0% of the businesses surveyed in China (compared to 46.3% in Asia Pacific) reported that domestic B2B customers have slowed invoice payment due to liquidity problems over the past year.

92.1% of respondents in Hong Kong (compared to 90.2% of respondents in Asia Pacific) reported having experienced invoice late payment from their B2B customers over the past year.

38.8% of respondents in India (29.6% in Asia Pacific) said domestic B2B customers pay invoices late intentionally, to use trade credit as a way of alternatively financing their business operations.

30% of survey respondents in Indonesia reported that payment on domestic B2B invoices is received late due to the formal insolvency of the buyer (respondents in Asia Pacific: 21.4%).

Most of the survey respondents in Japan (32.5%, notably above the 23% in Asia Pacific) consider cost containment to be the biggest challenge to business profitability this year.

21.5% respondents in Singapore versus 17.4% in Asia Pacific consider a likely drop in demand for their products and services as the biggest challenge to business profitability in 2015.

32.5% of respondents in Taiwan compared to 25.8% in Asia Pacific said that domestic B2B customers pay invoices late most often due to disputes over the quality of goods delivered or services provided.

Global trade growth has slowed significantly in recent years. For 2015, Atradius predicts just 1% international trade growth. This implies a difficult environment for exporters.

Russia remains an important market in the global economy. The ten principles of the report are meant to help businesses mitigate risks when exporting to Russia.

Due to Brazil’s economic slump and problems along the whole domestic automotive value chain we expect both payment delays and defaults to continue to worsen markedly in the coming months.

Despite the current slowdown the Chinese car market still provides robust growth potential.

After subsequent years of production decreases French subcontractors and suppliers have benefited from the rebound of the French and the European automotive sector.

Like other Spanish industries, the automotive sector was hard hit by the economic crisis, as lower domestic consumption and difficulty accessing financing led to a slump in the car market.

A major strength of the British car manufacturing industry is its diversity, with a mix of volume, premium and specialist producers.

In the period January 2015 - August 2015 domestic car production and exports both grew 2%, while new car registrations in Germany rose 6%.

Thanks to the strong recovery seen since H2 of 2014 many of Italy’s car suppliers have registered increasing profit margins and an improvement of their financial strength.

Japanese automotive businesses´profit margins have generally improved, mainly due to higher sales in North America.

In Slovakia, payment behaviour is generally good with a low number of non-payment notificiations, and this is expected to remain unchanged in the coming months.

Payment behaviour in the Swedish automotive sector is quite stable, and insolvencies are not expected to increase in the coming months.

Thailand´s automotive sectors is characterised by high entry barriers as the players in the market are large multinationals with strong financials and good know-how.

Payment behaviour in the US automotive sector has been rather good over the past two years.

Economic growth in the resource-rich Brazil continues to remain under pressure due to a combination of a credit crunch, rising interest rates and weakening demand.

One in three businesses surveyed in Brazil, Canada, Mexico and the United States reported that around one-fifth of the value of their B2B receivables is more than 90 days overdue.

Inflation is expected to remain high in 2015, at around 7%, while the current account deficit is expected to remain at the same level as in 2014 (5.7% of GDP).

Growth is expected to accelerate further in 2015 and 2016, by 2.8% and 3.5% respectively, driven by continued robust domestic demand and increasing exports to the Eurozone.

The Polish economy is expected to benefit from low energy prices and the rebound in the Eurozone, with GDP expected to grow 3.5% in 2015, based on robust domestic demand and increasing exports.

Economic growth is expected to continue in 2015 and 2016, although at a slower pace: by 3.0% and 2.4% respectively.

Due to robust domestic demand and benign economic conditions in the Eurozone, Czech GDP is expected to grow 3.0% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016.

The impact of the Chinese stock market crunch of this summer and the renminbi devaluation should not be overestimated. The main long-term risk is an accelerating economic slowdown.

The tubular goods segment is hit hard by the end of the oil boom, with insolvencies expected to increase.

Decreasing profitability due to foreign exchange losses and rising insolvencies.

Higher domestic steel consumption, but exchange rate volatility is expected to cause more payment delays.

Lower construction growth and overcapacity affect the sector, but the outlook for 2016 has improved.

A rebound driven by construction recovery, but increased foreign competition affects businesses´ margins.

The outlook for the industry remains subdued, with many Smaller steel mills struggling with poor operating margins.

Land acquisition issues in setting up greenfield projects, delays in environmental clearances, logistics support and external financing remain major issues

German steel producers and distributors are facing structural challenges, as lower steel prices and competition from Asia hit margins.

Insolvencies have decreased in 2014 and are expected to level off in 2015. The insolvency level in this segment is quite low.

Competition in the sector is high, and there are clear signs of price wars as the industry is struggling with overcapacity and weaker demand.

Structural overcapacity in the industry had a negative effect on businesses´ profit margins in 2014, and this negative trend is expected to continue in 2015.

Atradius identifies the most likely outcome of the UK’s in-out referendum set for 2017 and the sectors and countries most vulnerable to Brexit.

In 2015, Australian business insolvencies are expected to increase slightly by 2% as economic growth slows down and the mining industry faces mounting troubles.

The insolvency outlook for 2015 has weakened and difficulties are expected to continue into 2016.

The sector benefits from higher machinery investments as the Japanese economic recovery is on track (GDP is expected to grow 1.0% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016 after a modest contraction in 2014).